The MusiQology GRAMMYs Preview!

Are you ready for it?

I’m ready.

I’m ready for the red carpet and the ridiculous outfits. I’m ready for James Corden’s opening musical number. I’m ready for the awkward speeches. I’m ready for the snubs. I’m ready for the first musician to mention the President. I’m ready for the performances—A Tribe Called Quest and Anderson .Paak is going to be fire. I’m ready for Bruno Mars’s Chance the Rapper’s continue ascendance and Beyoncé’s baby bump. I’m ready to cry when Prince is shown on the In Memoriam montage.

But mostly, I’m ready for Adele to win Album of the Year.

That’s right. The GRAMMY Awards are this Sunday night, and despite Beyoncé’s nine nominations, cultural significance, and all-around Queen status, somehow it feels like it’ll be Adele’s evening. The academy has disappointed us before, remember, and going in with your guard up is important. We’ll be live-tweeting the show from @MusiQology, but here are four things to watch on music’s biggest night.

General Versus “Raced” Categories

There are plenty of artists of color who are nominated for awards within their genres (like R&B and rap) and in the mainstream “best” categories. Lemonade, of course, is the Las Vegas frontrunner for Album of the Year. It’s also the headliner in the still-unfortunately named Urban Contemporary Album category. Drake’s Views is also in consideration for the top prize; it’s also up for Best Rap Album. Often, it seems that artists of color settle for nominations in the mainstream awards, with their raced categories serving as consolation prizes. That being said, though, there’s some strategic placement this year, which might allow the academy might wind up with being able to satisfy all parties. To wit, “Hold Up” is up for Best Pop Solo Performance and “Work” is up for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, but neither is up against Adele until the last award of the night.

Taking a Chance

If any artist has a chance to seize the GRAMMYs spotlight, it’s the Chicago phenom Chance the Rapper, with seven nominations and a performance on what should be a busy night. Though the GRAMMYs get a lot wrong in hindsight, Best New Artist is often a sign of future success. Four guys from Liverpool called The Beatles took it home in 1965. Tracy Chapman, Mariah Carey, Lauryn Hill, Alicia Keys, and John Legend all have that golden gramophone in their trophy cases. And while Anderson .Paak has had a heck of a year, Chance the Rapper’s momentum has carried him to the obvious choice for this award.

This Award Show Kills Fascists…Or Does It?

From the Golden Globes to the Super Bowl, politics in the post-inauguration moment has dominated our bandwidths and social media feeds. Sunday night represents the musical community’s first chance at the big stage, and you have to assume that some statements will be coming. What has been interesting though, is a general sentiment expressed by the show itself. “We expect that artists will have things to say and while we’re not a forum for that, we also don’t feel that it’s right to censor them,” producer Ken Ehrlich told Rolling Stone. The first half of that quote is telling—another unnamed source told Rolling Stone that CBS and the RIAA are scrutinizing the script more closely than in years past. “They’re being so much more meticulous about the words in a way to make sure in this day and age, where everyone is looking for this coded message, that no one’s going to then be able to take from that and spin something completely out of control,” says the source. Again, we have no doubt that some artists will use this bully pulpit to their advantage, but the backstory here is fascinating and will be something to follow.

Some Predictions

Chance wins Best New Artist (and gets half-credit for Kanye’s “Ultralight Beam” Best Rap/Sung Performance). Views (for reasons unclear to us) takes Best Rap Album. Joey Alexander wins Best Improvised Jazz Solo. Gregory Porter wins Best Jazz Vocal Album; John Scofield’s Country for Old Men wins Best Jazz Instrumental Album. Solange’s “Cranes in the Sky” wins Best R&B Performance. Ziggy Marley wins Best Reggae Album (though Raging Fyah should). Straight Outta Compton wins Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media. Adele’s “Hello” wins Best Pop Solo Performance and Song of the Year. Lemonade wins Best Urban Contemporary Album. “Formation” wins Record of the Year and Best Music Video. And of course, Adele’s 25 wins Album of the Year. Though on that last one, I’m ready to be wrong and not mind.